Italy earthquake, an evidence for vulnerability of our world in 21st century
The earthquake of 24 August 2016 in Central Italy with a magnitude of 6.2 which claimed over 290 lives, might be an evidence for the vulnerability of our world in the 21st century.
The quake occurred in Italy, which is a member of the European Union and one of G7 state members.
The death toll and a total ruin of at least one town, Amaritce, indicate that even in such developed country in Central Europe in early 21st century, we may expect such a level of vulnerability.
Amartice is in the province of Rieti, Northern Lazio, about 140km from Roma, the Capital of Italy.
About 48 hours after the main shock, rescue efforts are in progress; however, more than 200 aftershocks, having a magnitude greater than 3 in the 2 days after the main shock, have caused difficulties for search and rescue teams and for those living in pre-fabricated shelters.
Italy has an important history of disastrous earthquakes as well as high level of seismicity in the southern Europe. This county is located along a continental collision zone between the African and Eurasian plates, geologically speaking.
The small town of Amatrice, having had about 2,500 inhabitants before the 2016 earthquake, had experienced another devastating earthquake in 1638 when it was totally damaged. Today, after the passage of about 400 years, another severe earthquake has demolished the town, taking nearly 300 lives. This town is located in 43km north of l’Aquilla, the epicenter of 6 April 2009 earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3.
Italy is known for having had over 30,000 medium and high intensity earthquakes in the last 2,500 years, out of which 560 were strong and damaging, about one every 4 and half years.
In the 20th century, 7 earthquakes with a magnitude equal to or greater than 6.5 struck the country. The most important earthquakes are 1908 Messina earthquake (M7.2, claimed about 100,000 victims), 1930 Irpina earthquake (M6.6, about 7,000 victims), 1976 Friuli earthquake (M6.6, about 1,000 victims), and 1980 Irpina earthquake (M6.9, about 9,000 victims).
Italy has areas more prone to earthquakes of smaller magnitudes, most notably in the southern part of Roma, in Vesuvius and Etna area, as well as other locations where earthquakes occur less frequently but with greater magnitude like Calabria Apennines.
The recent earthquake in central Italy tells us that time is ripe for review the lessons learned from previous earthquakes especially from l’Aquila 2009 earthquake. The reconstruction of l’Aquila earthquake prone area was widely criticized for delays and its ineffectiveness. Meanwhile, the emergency relief response to Amatrice 2016 earthquake may now be evaluated and compared to the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.
There was another important issue raised after the l’Aquila 2009 earthquake: The ‘earthquake prediction’ by an Italian laboratory technician, Giampaolo Giuliani, who claimed to have predicted the l’Aquilla earthquake and the position of “National committee for predicting and preventing major risks” to reject this claim before its happening (and giving this message to the inhabitant that “no important earthquake will occurs!”), caused a long judicial process (from September 2011 until October 2012) that finally found six scientists and a former government official (members of the national risk committee) guilty of “involuntary manslaughter.”
The prosecution declared that the members of the risk committee to “spread inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory statements after preliminary tremors could be felt on the days before 6 April 2009” and the scientists declared to be guilty of failing “to give adequate warning.” After l’Aquila earthquake, the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has politicized the process (for both cases: earthquake prediction and the reconstruction). The L'Aquila reconstruction effort suffered problems with local ownership, national, regional and municipal coordination.
The Amatrice earthquake of 2016 should be taken as a case in point to review the earthquake resiliency and the re-evaluation of response and recovery vis-à-vis earthquakes in central Europe and certainly as a lesson to be learned for us all in Iran.
The Amatrice 2016 and l’Aquilla 2009 earthquakes are both in the comparable size (Magnitude and extent of damages) to the Varzeghan 2011, Azarbayjan, NW Iran earthquake (M6.4, 306 victims). A scientific collaboration (to be initialized as bilateral workshop) between Iranian and Italian scientists might be helpful for both sides to review, share and learn such scientific and technical lessons.
Mehdi Zare is a Professor of Engineering Seismology, IIEES, Tehran, Iran
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